NVS
HOLD
Conviction: 3/5
$215B
Novartis AG
Current: $105 · PT: $115
Investment Thesis
Global pharma leader with strong positions in cardiovascular, immunology, neuroscience, and oncology. Achieved 40% core margin in 2025. Navigating Entresto patent cliff in 2026 with diversified growth drivers.
Bull Case
Entresto LOE better than feared with strong branded retention. Kisqali and Kesimpta accelerate above expectations. Pluvicto supply constraints resolved, captures mCRPC market. Pipeline delivers with Ianalumab and Pelabresib approvals.
Bear Case
Entresto generics erode faster than expected. Cosentyx faces biosimilar pressure earlier. Pluvicto manufacturing issues persist. Pipeline setbacks in radioligand or immunology programs.
Drug Portfolio (24)
Oncology
Radioligand therapy
IV
Neurology
Small molecule
Oral
Oncology
Small molecule
Oral
Oncology
Radioligand therapy
IV
Oncology
Small molecule
Oral
Immunology
Small molecule
Oral
Neurology
Gene therapy
IV
Oncology
Small molecule
Oral
Oncology
Small molecule
Oral
Oncology
Small molecule
Oral
Immunology
Small molecule
Oral
Oncology
Small molecule
Oral
Immunology
Small molecule
Oral
Oncology
Radioligand therapy
IV
CVRM
Antisense oligonucleotide
SC
Ophthalmology
Antibody fragment
Intravitreal
| Drug | Stage | Role | Ownership | Area | Modality |
|---|
| Aimovig | APPROVED | CO_DEVELOPER | 50% | Neurology | Antibody |
Financials (USD)
| Period | Revenue ($M) | Gross Margin | R&D | SG&A | Op Income | Op Margin | Net Income | EPS |
|---|
| 2023A | $45,400 | 75.0% | $9,080 | $11,350 | $13,620 | 30.0% | $10,900 | $5.32 |
| 2024A | $50,300 | 76.0% | $10,060 | $12,070 | $16,100 | 32.0% | $13,330 | $6.49 |
| 2025A | $54,000 | 76.5% | $10,800 | $12,960 | $17,550 | 32.5% | $14,660 | $7.15 |
| 2026E | $57,500 | 77.0% | $11,500 | $13,800 | $18,975 | 33.0% | $15,800 | $7.70 |
| 2027E | $61,000 | 77.0% | $12,200 | $14,640 | $20,130 | 33.0% | $16,750 | $8.17 |
| 2028E | $64,000 | 77.0% | $12,800 | $15,360 | $21,120 | 33.0% | $17,550 | $8.56 |
| 2029E | $66,500 | 77.0% | $13,300 | $15,960 | $21,945 | 33.0% | $18,250 | $8.90 |
| 2030E | $68,500 | 77.0% | $13,700 | $16,440 | $22,605 | 33.0% | $18,800 | $9.17 |
Recent Quarters
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | Gross Margin | Op Margin | EPS |
|---|
| Q4 2026E | $15,000 | 77.0% | 33.0% | $2.01 |
| Q4 2025 | $14,100 | 76.5% | 32.5% | $1.86 |
| Q4 2024 | $13,140 | 76.0% | 32.0% | $1.61 |
| Q3 2026E | $14,700 | 77.0% | 33.0% | $1.97 |
| Q3 2025 | $13,700 | 76.5% | 32.5% | $1.82 |
| Q3 2024 | $12,820 | 76.0% | 32.0% | $1.69 |
Catalysts (15)
Pluvicto - Pre-Chemo mCRPC - FDA Approval
REGULATORY
SM
Novartis PSMAfore PR, FDA filing 2025
Q1 2026
NVS - Avidity Biosciences Acquisition Close
CORPORATE
Novartis PR Jan 13, 2026
H1 2026
Entresto - Generic Competition Impact
COMPETITIVE
SM
Novartis Q4 2025 Earnings
2026
Leqvio - Commercial Uptake Updates
COMMERCIAL
Novartis Q4 2025 Earnings
2026
225Ac-PSMA-617 - mCRPC - Ph3 - Start
CLINICAL
Novartis JPM 2026 Presentation
2026
Pelabresib - Myelofibrosis - EU Filing/Approval
REGULATORY
SM
Novartis Q4 2025 Earnings, FDA CRL
2026
Pelabresib - Myelofibrosis - Ph3 - Start (MANIFEST-3)
CLINICAL
Novartis Q4 2025 Earnings
2026
Scemblix - 1L CML - FDA Approval
REGULATORY
SM
Novartis ASC4FIRST PR, JPM 2026
H1 2026
Pelacarsen - Lp(a) CV Prevention - Ph3 - Topline (HORIZON)
CLINICAL
SM
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04023552, Novartis JPM 2026
H1 2026
Fabhalta - IgAN - Full Approval Data
CLINICAL
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04578834
H2 2026
Remibrutinib - Hidradenitis Suppurativa - Ph3 - Topline
CLINICAL
SM
Novartis JPM 2026 Pipeline
H2 2026
Remibrutinib - CIndU - Ph3 - Topline
CLINICAL
Novartis JPM 2026 Pipeline
H2 2026
Ianalumab - SLE - Ph3 - Topline (SIRIUS-SLE)
CLINICAL
SM
ClinicalTrials.gov, Novartis JPM 2026
H2 2026
Cosentyx - Biosimilar Competition Timeline
COMPETITIVE
Novartis investor presentations
Ongoing
Ianalumab - Sjogren's - Ph3 - Topline
CLINICAL
SM
Novartis JPM 2026 Pipeline
2027
Open Debates (2)
Underappreciated Growth Driver: Fabhalta (iptacopan) — First Oral Complement Inhibitor
Bull
Fabhalta is the first oral complement factor B inhibitor — approved for PNH, in development for C3G, IgAN. In PNH, it competes with Soliris/Ultomiris (both IV/SubQ, $6B+ combined). Oral convenience is a massive differentiator for a chronic disease requiring lifelong treatment. $420M in early launch suggests strong physician interest. If IgAN data is positive, the TAM expands to $3-5B. Novartis guides to $3B peak — could exceed if oral convenience drives switch from injectables.
Bear
PNH is small (~15K patients in US). Soliris/Ultomiris are deeply entrenched with proven long-term outcomes. Physicians are cautious about switching complement inhibition. Factor B inhibition may not provide equivalent protection vs C5 inhibition.
Conviction: 5/5
Underappreciated Risk: Entresto Patent Cliff — Immediate and Large
Bull
Novartis has guided for better-than-feared erosion with strong branded retention. Heart failure patients and physicians prefer known brands. Kissqali, Kesimpta, and pipeline will offset.
Bear
Entresto is $7.1B — the largest single drug. Generic sacubitril/valsartan will launch in 2026. Heart failure is a primary care market where generics dominate aggressively. Entresto erosion could reach 50%+ within 18 months — a $3.5B revenue hole. Novartis's 40% core margin was achieved WITH Entresto's high-margin contribution. Post-cliff, margins will compress. The pipeline is strong but none of the assets individually replace $7B.
Conviction: 5/5
Data from Supabase · Updated 2026-03-24