UCB
HOLD
Conviction: 2/5
$17B
UCB SA
Current: $165 · PT: $160
Investment Thesis
Belgian biopharma transitioning from legacy neurology (Vimpat LOE) to immunology growth (Bimzelx). Strong MG franchise with Rystiggo/Zilbrysq competing against ARGX Vyvgart. Evenity partnership with Amgen provides bone health exposure.
Bull Case
Bimzelx becomes blockbuster ($4B+) as best-in-class IL-17A/F in psoriasis/PsA/axSpA. HS indication expands TAM significantly. MG drugs gain share despite Vyvgart competition. Pipeline (dapirolizumab in SLE) delivers.
Bear Case
Vimpat generic erosion accelerates. Bimzelx struggles vs entrenched IL-17s (Cosentyx, Taltz). MG market dominated by Vyvgart subcutaneous. SLE pipeline fails.
Drug Portfolio (19)
Neurology
Small molecule
PO
Neurology
Small molecule
Oral/IV
Neurology
Small molecule
Nasal
Neurology
Small molecule
Oral
Neurology
Small molecule
Transdermal
Immunology
Multi-specific antibody
SC
Immunology
Multi-specific antibody
SC
Neurology
Small molecule
Oral
Neurology
Small molecule (inhaled)
Inhaled
Rare Disease
Small molecule
Oral
Immunology
Antibody fragment
SC
| Drug | Stage | Role | Ownership | Area | Modality |
|---|
| Briviact | APPROVED | ORIGINATOR | 100% | Neurology | Small molecule |
| Zilbrysq | APPROVED | ORIGINATOR | 100% | Neurology | Peptide |
| Padsevonil | PHASE3 | ORIGINATOR | 100% | Neurology | Small molecule |
Financials (EUR)
| Period | Revenue ($M) | Gross Margin | R&D | SG&A | Op Income | Op Margin | Net Income | EPS |
|---|
| 2023A | $6,300 | 75.0% | $1,260 | $1,890 | $1,575 | 25.0% | $1,140 | $11.40 |
| 2024A | $6,700 | 76.0% | $1,340 | $1,940 | $1,812 | 27.0% | $1,354 | $13.54 |
| 2025A | $7,400 | 77.0% | $1,480 | $2,072 | $2,146 | 29.0% | $1,637 | $16.37 |
| 2026E | $8,100 | 77.0% | $1,620 | $2,268 | $2,349 | 29.0% | $1,792 | $17.92 |
| 2027E | $8,800 | 77.0% | $1,760 | $2,464 | $2,552 | 29.0% | $1,950 | $19.50 |
| 2028E | $9,400 | 77.0% | $1,880 | $2,632 | $2,726 | 29.0% | $2,080 | $20.80 |
Recent Quarters
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | Gross Margin | Op Margin | EPS |
|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1,930 | 78.0% | 30.9% | $4.39 |
| Q4 2024 | $1,750 | 78.0% | 29.5% | $3.41 |
| Q3 2025 | $1,900 | 77.0% | 29.0% | $4.20 |
| Q3 2024 | $1,720 | 76.0% | 27.5% | $3.61 |
| Q2 2026E | $2,000 | 77.0% | 29.0% | $4.40 |
| Q2 2025 | $1,820 | 77.0% | 29.0% | $4.00 |
Catalysts (12)
Donzakimig - Atopic Dermatitis - Ph2a - Results
CLINICAL
UCB Pipeline page (ucb.com/innovation/pipeline)
H2 2025
STACCATO Alprazolam - Seizures - Ph3 - Headline Results
CLINICAL
SM
UCB Pipeline page (ucb.com/innovation/pipeline)
H1 2026
Galvokimig - Atopic Dermatitis - Ph2b - Start/Updates
CLINICAL
UCB EADV 2025 PR, ucb.com Sep 2025
2026
UCB - FY 2025 Results & 2026 Guidance
GUIDANCE
SM
ucb.com/investors (Financial Calendar)
Feb 26, 2026
Evenity - Commercial Uptake (with Amgen)
COMMERCIAL
UCB JPM 2026 Presentation
2026
Fintepla - Commercial Updates
COMMERCIAL
UCB JPM 2026 Presentation
2026
Bimzelx - Commercial Momentum Updates
COMMERCIAL
SM
UCB JPM 2026 Presentation
2026
Rystiggo - MOG Antibody Disease - Ph3 - Headline Results
CLINICAL
SM
UCB Pipeline page (ucb.com/innovation/pipeline)
H2 2026
Bimzelx vs Risankizumab - PsA - Head-to-Head Data
CLINICAL
UCB Pipeline page (ucb.com/innovation/pipeline)
H2 2026
Padsevonil - Drug-Resistant Epilepsy - Ph3 - Updates
CLINICAL
UCB Pipeline page
2026
Bepranemab - PSP/Alzheimer's - Ph2 - Updates
CLINICAL
UCB Pipeline page
2026
Dapirolizumab Pegol - SLE - Ph3 - Topline (PHOENYCS FLY)
CLINICAL
SM
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT06617325, Biogen/UCB PR
2027-2028
Open Debates (2)
Underappreciated Growth Driver: Bimzelx in Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS)
Bull
Bimzelx ($850M FY24, growing fast) is already best-in-class IL-17A/F in psoriasis. HS affects ~1% of the population — a massive, severely underserved market with only Humira (poorly effective) and a few IL-17s approved. Bimzelx's dual IL-17A/F mechanism targets the neutrophilic inflammation central to HS pathophysiology. If HS is approved, the TAM effectively doubles — from $4B (dermatology) to $7-8B. HS patients are high-value (chronic, severe, high burden of disease).
Bear
HS is a difficult market — high placebo response, heterogeneous disease. Cosentyx (Novartis) is also pursuing HS. The $4B peak already prices in some label expansion.
Conviction: 5/5
Underappreciated Risk: Dual Legacy Erosion — Vimpat + Cimzia Cliff
Bull
Bimzelx growth ($850M and accelerating) plus Rystiggo/Zilbrysq in MG will offset. UCB has managed transitions before (Keppra → Vimpat). The growth portfolio is diversified.
Bear
Vimpat ($1.45B) + Cimzia ($1.65B) = $3.1B of revenue facing generic/biosimilar erosion. That is ~30% of UCB's revenue. Bimzelx needs to grow from $850M to $3B+ just to offset — while simultaneously competing with Cosentyx, Taltz, and Skyrizi in psoriasis. Rystiggo and Zilbrysq are in a market dominated by ARGX Vyvgart. The math requires everything to go right simultaneously.
Conviction: 5/5
Data from Supabase · Updated 2026-03-24