AMGN HOLD Conviction: 2/5 $198B

Amgen Inc.

Current: $366 · PT: $380

Investment Thesis

Diversified large-cap biopharma navigating a dual transition: legacy biosimilar erosion (Prolia/XGEVA/Enbrel losing ~$2.5B in 2026) offset by 6 growth engines (Repatha, Evenity, Tezspire, IMDELLTRA, UPLIZNA, biosimilars). MariTide obesity optionality is the long-term catalyst but 2029-2030 launch timeline creates uncertainty. HOLD thesis: growth drivers currently offsetting erosion, but guidance implies deceleration to +3% in 2026.

Bull Case

Repatha primary prevention (VESALIUS-CV) could expand addressable market 3-5x to $5B+ peak sales. IMDELLTRA moving to 1L SCLC ($3-5B franchise). Tezspire lifecycle (CRSwNP, COPD, EoE) could make it a $4B+ drug. Prolia biosimilar erosion slower than feared (SC biologic stickier than IV). MariTide monthly dosing is paradigm-shifting. $8B+ FCF funds deleveraging + returns. Keytruda biosimilar (ABP-234) is a 2028-2029 mega-opportunity.

Bear Case

Prolia/XGEVA biosimilar cliff accelerates in 2026 (~$2.5B at risk). Enbrel already -33% and declining. $54.6B debt load from Horizon acquisition constrains flexibility. Guidance implies only +3% revenue growth — if growth engines underperform, estimates get cut. MariTide 3-4 years behind LLY/NVO in obesity. Tavneos FDA withdrawal risk ($459M). Olpasiran CVOT readout slipping.

Drug Portfolio (22)

MariTide PHASE3

100% ownership

CVRM Antibody-peptide conjugate SC

Repatha APPROVED

100% ownership

CVRM Monoclonal antibody SC

Prolia APPROVED

100% ownership

CVRM Monoclonal antibody SC

XGEVA APPROVED

100% ownership

Oncology Monoclonal antibody SC

IMDELLTRA APPROVED

100% ownership

Oncology Bispecific T-cell engager (BiTE) IV

BLINCYTO APPROVED

100% ownership

Oncology Bispecific T-cell engager (BiTE) IV

UPLIZNA APPROVED

100% ownership

R&I Monoclonal antibody IV

Olpasiran PHASE3

100% ownership

CVRM siRNA SC

Xaluritamig PHASE3

100% ownership

Oncology Bispecific T-cell engager (BiTE) IV/SC

Dazodalibep PHASE3

100% ownership

R&I VHH domain antibody SC

Drug	Stage	Role	Ownership	Area	Modality
Evenity	APPROVED	CO_DEVELOPER	50%	CVRM	Antibody
Aimovig	APPROVED	CO_DEVELOPER	50%	Neurology	Antibody
Tezspire	APPROVED	CO_DEVELOPER	50%	R&I	Antibody
Tepezza	APPROVED	LICENSEE	0%	Rare Disease	Antibody
Otezla	APPROVED	ORIGINATOR	100%	R&I	Small molecule
Enbrel	APPROVED	ORIGINATOR	100%	R&I	Fusion protein
Nplate	APPROVED	ORIGINATOR	100%	Hematology	Fusion protein
Kyprolis	APPROVED	ORIGINATOR	100%	Oncology	Small molecule
KRYSTEXXA	APPROVED	ORIGINATOR	100%	R&I	PEGylated enzyme
TAVNEOS	APPROVED	ORIGINATOR	100%	R&I	Small molecule
LUMAKRAS	APPROVED	ORIGINATOR	100%	Oncology	Small molecule
Vectibix	APPROVED	ORIGINATOR	100%	Oncology	Monoclonal antibody

Financials (USD)

Period	Revenue ($M)	Gross Margin	R&D	SG&A	Op Income	Op Margin	Net Income	EPS
2024	$33,424	61.5%	$5,964	$7,096	$7,258	21.7%	$4,090	$7.56
2025	$36,751	67.2%	$7,272	$7,050	$9,080	24.7%	$7,711	$14.23

Recent Quarters

Quarter	Revenue ($M)	Gross Margin	Op Margin	EPS
Q4 2025	$9,866	69.8%	27.6%	$2.45
Q4 2024	$9,086	65.7%	25.4%	$1.16

Catalysts (11)

MariTide - Obesity - Ph2 Part 2 - Maintenance/Quarterly Dosing Data

CLINICAL SM

Amgen JPM 2026 presentation, Q4 2025 earnings call H1 2026

Repatha - Primary Prevention - VESALIUS-CV Subgroups at ACC

CLINICAL SM

Amgen Q4 2025 earnings call, ACC 2026 schedule March 2026

Dazodalibep - Sjogren's - Ph3 Data (2 studies)

CLINICAL SM

Amgen Q4 2025 earnings, amgenpipeline.com 2026

AMGN - Q1 2026 Earnings

GUIDANCE

Typical AMGN earnings cadence Late April 2026

Tezspire - COPD - Ph3 Data

CLINICAL SM

Amgen Q4 2025 earnings H2 2026

MariTide - T2D + Obesity - Ph3 - Topline (MARITIME-2)

CLINICAL SM

Amgen Q4 2025 earnings call (Feb 3, 2026) Early 2027

IMDELLTRA - 1L ES-SCLC - Ph3 Data (DeLLphi-308/312)

CLINICAL SM

Amgen Q4 2025 earnings 2027

MariTide - Obesity - Ph3 - Topline (MARITIME-1)

CLINICAL SM

Amgen Q4 2025 earnings call (Feb 3, 2026) Early 2027

MariTide - Obesity - BLA Filing

REGULATORY SM

Amgen guidance, analyst consensus 2027-2028

Olpasiran - Elevated Lp(a) - OCEAN(a)-Outcomes CVOT

CLINICAL SM

Amgen Q4 2025 earnings, ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05581303 2027+

MariTide - HFpEF - Ph3 - Outcomes (MARITIME-HF)

CLINICAL SM

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT07037459 2028+

Data from Supabase · Updated 2026-03-24