LLY
BUY
Conviction: 5/5
$765B
Eli Lilly and Company
Current: $850 · PT: $950
Investment Thesis
Dominant GLP-1 franchise with Mounjaro/Zepbound driving unprecedented growth. Pipeline includes oral GLP-1 (orforglipron, PDUFA Mar 2026) and triple agonist retatrutide. Alzheimer's drug Kisunla adds diversification.
Bull Case
Obesity market larger than expected ($150B+ TAM). Oral GLP-1 opens maintenance market. Manufacturing investments create durable competitive advantage. Retatrutide could be best-in-class with ~30% weight loss.
Bear Case
Competition from Novo Nordisk intensifying. Pricing pressure from payers/government. Manufacturing scale-up execution risk. Safety signals in retatrutide (dysesthesia).
Drug Portfolio (12)
Oncology
Small molecule
ORAL
Oncology
Small molecule
ORAL
Immunology
Small molecule
ORAL
Financials (USD)
| Period | Revenue ($M) | Gross Margin | R&D | SG&A | Op Income | Op Margin | Net Income | EPS |
|---|
| 2023A | $34,124 | 79.0% | $9,313 | $7,580 | $10,051 | 29.5% | $5,240 | $5.80 |
| 2024A | $45,044 | 80.5% | $10,500 | $8,250 | $17,510 | 38.9% | $13,990 | $15.58 |
| 2025A | $58,200 | 82.0% | $11,640 | $9,312 | $26,772 | 46.0% | $21,642 | $24.15 |
| 2026E | $72,500 | 83.0% | $12,688 | $10,150 | $37,337 | 51.5% | $29,870 | $33.40 |
| 2027E | $85,000 | 84.0% | $13,600 | $10,625 | $47,175 | 55.5% | $37,740 | $42.30 |
| 2028E | $95,000 | 85.0% | $14,250 | $11,400 | $55,100 | 58.0% | $44,080 | $49.50 |
Recent Quarters
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | Gross Margin | Op Margin | EPS |
|---|
| Q4 2026E | $20,500 | 83.0% | 52.6% | $9.66 |
| Q4 2025 | $16,520 | 82.8% | 48.7% | $7.33 |
| Q4 2024 | $13,533 | 81.5% | 44.2% | $5.51 |
| Q3 2026E | $18,500 | 83.0% | 52.0% | $8.61 |
| Q3 2025 | $14,850 | 82.0% | 46.0% | $6.14 |
| Q3 2024 | $11,440 | 80.0% | 39.0% | $3.88 |
Catalysts (16)
Eloralintide - Obesity - Ph2b - Topline
CLINICAL
Lilly Q4 2025 Earnings
2026
Pirtobrutinib - 1L MCL - FDA Filing
REGULATORY
Lilly oncology pipeline updates
2026
Tirzepatide - MASH - Ph3 - Topline (SYNERGY-NASH)
CLINICAL
SM
Lilly pipeline disclosures
2026
Retatrutide - Obesity/CVD - Ph3 - Topline (TRIUMPH-3)
CLINICAL
SM
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05882045
February 2026
Orforglipron - Obesity - FDA Approval
REGULATORY
SM
CEO statement Nov 6, 2025; NDA submitted Dec 18, 2025
March 2026
Pirtobrutinib - CLL - Ph3 - Full Data vs Imbruvica
CLINICAL
Lilly Q4 2025 Earnings
H1 2026
Retatrutide - Obesity - Ph3 - Topline (TRIUMPH-1)
CLINICAL
SM
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05929066
April 2026
LLY - Q1 2026 Earnings
GUIDANCE
SM
Lilly investor calendar
Apr 30, 2026
Retatrutide - T2D - Ph3 - Topline (TRIUMPH-2)
CLINICAL
SM
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05929079
May 2026
Orforglipron - Obesity/T2D - EMA Approval
REGULATORY
Lilly Q4 2025 Earnings
H2 2026
Sofetabart - PROC - Ph3 - Topline
CLINICAL
Lilly Q4 2025 Earnings - BTD announcement
H2 2026
Taltz + Zepbound - PsA/Obesity - FDA Filing
REGULATORY
Lilly Q4 2025 Earnings - positive Ph3 data
H2 2026
Zepbound - Medicare Part D Access
COMMERCIAL
SM
Lilly Q4 2025 Earnings (investor.lilly.com)
July 1, 2026
Zepbound vs CagriSema - Obesity - Ph3 - Topline (REDEFINE-4)
CLINICAL
SM
ClinicalTrials.gov REDEFINE-4 (NVO-sponsored)
H2 2026
Retatrutide - Obesity - NDA Submission
REGULATORY
SM
Analyst consensus based on TRIUMPH timeline
Late 2026
Donanemab - Preclinical AD - Ph3 - Interim (TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 3)
CLINICAL
Lilly Kisunla label update PR (investor.lilly.com)
2027+
Open Debates (2)
Underappreciated Growth Driver: Kisunla (donanemab) Alzheimer's TAM
Bull
Kisunla has a key differentiator: treatment discontinuation. Unlike Leqembi (indefinite treatment), Kisunla can be stopped once amyloid is cleared — making the treatment course finite and more palatable for payers. Alzheimer's affects 7M Americans; even 5% penetration at $26K/year = $9B. Blood-based diagnostics (PrecivityAD) are eliminating the PET/CSF bottleneck. The slow Leqembi launch reflected infrastructure issues, not demand — those are being resolved. LLY's commercial engine (built for GLP-1 scale) will outperform Eisai's.
Bear
Leqembi's slow launch (<$1B) suggests anti-amyloid demand is limited. ARIA safety concerns limit to specialist settings. Payer resistance remains high. $5B peak may be more realistic than $15B+.
Conviction: 5/5
Underappreciated Risk: GLP-1 Class Safety Signals at Current Valuation
Bull
GLP-1s have been used for 20+ years in diabetes with well-characterized safety. The class is being used in millions of patients with strong real-world safety data. Thyroid cancer signals have not been confirmed in humans.
Bear
LLY trades at 50-60x forward earnings. The obesity franchise (Mounjaro + Zepbound) is projected at $65B+ peak. ANY class safety signal — thyroid cancer confirmation, pancreatitis increase, muscle loss concerns, psychological effects — would crater the stock. The valuation has zero margin of safety for a negative surprise. Compounding pharmacies are eroding brand pricing. IRA negotiations will eventually target GLP-1s. At this multiple, even a 10% downward revision to peak sales estimates means a 20-30% stock decline.
Conviction: 5/5
Would change view: The market treats GLP-1 safety as fully characterized. But the obesity population (vs diabetes) is younger, healthier, and treated for decades. Long-term safety data in this population does not exist.
Data from Supabase · Updated 2026-03-24