ALNY - Alnylam - Beechwood Capital

Drug	Stage	Role	Ownership	Area	Modality
Onpattro	APPROVED	ORIGINATOR	100%	Neurology	siRNA

Period	Revenue ($M)	Gross Margin	R&D	SG&A	Op Income	Op Margin	Net Income	EPS
2023A	$1,877	85.0%	$845	$565	$185	9.9%	$205	$1.62
2024A	$2,385	85.0%	$1,050	$645	$332	13.9%	$357	$2.75
2025A	$3,020	85.0%	$1,270	$725	$572	18.9%	$577	$4.32
2026E	$3,650	85.0%	$1,460	$800	$842	23.1%	$760	$5.55
2027E	$4,300	85.0%	$1,680	$860	$1,115	25.9%	$1,005	$7.15
2028E	$5,000	85.0%	$1,900	$920	$1,430	28.6%	$1,290	$9.00

Quarter	Revenue ($M)	Gross Margin	Op Margin	EPS
Q4 2025	$810	85.0%	19.8%	$1.17
Q4 2024	$660	85.0%	15.6%	$0.78
Q3 2025	$780	85.0%	20.0%	$1.15
Q3 2024	$610	85.0%	14.9%	$0.75
Q2 2026E	$900	85.0%	22.8%	$1.38
Q2 2025	$735	85.0%	18.6%	$1.05

Underappreciated Growth Driver: Zilebesiran (RNAi for Hypertension)

Bull

Hypertension affects 1.3 billion people globally. Non-adherence to daily oral medication is the #1 reason for uncontrolled blood pressure. A twice-yearly injection that eliminates adherence entirely could capture a massive share of treatment-resistant and non-adherent patients. The $4.2B peak estimate assumes limited penetration — but if KARDIA-3 outcomes trial shows MACE reduction, zilebesiran could become standard-of-care for high-risk patients. The TAM for a proven CV outcomes drug in hypertension is $20B+. AZN partnership validates the opportunity.

Bear

Hypertension is a generic market — oral pills cost pennies. Payers will resist $10K+/year pricing when losartan costs $30/year. The outcomes trial is years away. Adherence-focused drugs have failed commercially before (Exforge, polypills). Physician inertia in primary care is enormous.

Conviction: 5/5

Would change view: The Street prices ALNY as a rare disease company with RNAi optionality. Zilebesiran, if successful, would fundamentally re-rate ALNY as a chronic disease platform.

Underappreciated Risk: Revenue Capture on Partnered Assets

Bull

Royalty-rich model means low opex required to capture upside. Partners handle commercialization. Alnylam collects milestones + tiered royalties.

Bear

Leqvio ($950M FY25) is a Novartis drug — Alnylam earns tiered royalties, not product revenue. Zilebesiran is partnered with AZN. Alnylam's own products (Onpattro $412M, Amvuttra $621M) are small rare disease drugs. If the biggest pipeline assets succeed, the majority of economics flow to partners. The market cap assumes franchise-level revenue capture, but the P&L will reflect royalty-level economics.

Conviction: 5/5